中国经济长期向好基本面不会改变

China’s Economic Growth Remains on a Positive Trajectory

秋平

Qiu Ping

10月23日，习近平总书记在二十届中共中央政治局常委同中外记者见面时强调，中国经济韧性强、潜力足、回旋余地广，长期向好的基本面不会改变。10月24日，国家统计局发布三季度经济数据，从中国三季度经济运行看，主要指标恢复回稳，保持在合理区间，积极因素累积增多。我们要进一步坚定信心，扎实巩固经济恢复向好势头。

On October 24, 2022, a day after President Xi Jinping met the media, stating that the Chinese economy has great resilience, potential and latitude, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that the GDP growth in the third quarter of 2022 had increased by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter. Xi’s words were echoed in NBS statistics that showed a return to continued stable recovery with key economic indicators staying within a reasonable range. The figures highlight the success of Beijing’s economic support measures and give policymakers confidence that economic recovery is going on in the right direction. This also supports Xi’s assessment that the strong fundamentals of the Chinese economy will not change and that China will “remain on a positive trajectory over the long run.”

今年以来，面对复杂严峻的国内外形势和多重超预期因素冲击，在以习近平同志为核心的中共中央坚强领导下，国民经济顶住压力持续恢复，三季度经济恢复向好，明显好于二季度，生产需求持续改善，就业物价总体稳定，民生保障有力有效，总体运行在合理区间。初步核算，前三季度国内生产总值870269亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长3.0%，比上半年加快0.5个百分点。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长4.8%，二季度增长0.4%，三季度增长3.9%。从环比看，三季度国内生产总值增长3.9%。从宏观数据看，前三季度我国国民经济三大需求持续回升，恢复发展后劲增强。从物价和就业看，物价水平温和上涨，就业形势总体稳定。前三季度，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨2.0%；全国城镇调查失业率平均为5.6%，其中三季度平均为5.4%，比二季度下降0.4个百分点。随着稳经济一揽子政策和接续政策措施落地显效，在生产恢复的同时，新动能引领作用凸显，产业结构持续优化，消费、投资、出口三大需求持续回升，经济恢复发展后劲增强。总的来看，中国经济克服多重超预期冲击的不利影响，主要指标恢复回稳，保持在合理区间，积极因素累积增多。

On the right path

CPC’s leadership in the face of complex challenges and unforeseen circumstances has helped to fend off headwinds and maintain stable economic recovery. Despite facing numerous hurdles both at home and abroad, the economy has continued its positive trajectory with the first three quarters’ GDP growing by 3% year-on-year to hit a total of 87 trillion yuan (around $12 trillion): the first quarter, 4.8% year-on-year growth; the second quarter, 0.4% year-on-year growth; and the third quarter, 3.9% year-on-year growth. At the macro level, all three of the economy’s main drivers—consumption, investment, and exports—continued to see a strong sustained recovery. The figures also showed that China’s employment rate remained relatively stable over the first three quarters. China’s headline measure of joblessness, the urban surveyed unemployment rate, dipped to 5.4% in the third quarter, a drop of 0.4 percentage points on the second quarter. Inflation also remained stable with the Consumer Price Index rising 2% year-on-year. NBS statistics further demonstrated that Beijing’s raft of economic stimulus measures had been effective in increasing production, especially in new growth drivers across high-tech and low-emission fields. Overall, third-quarter data indicated that the economy has overcome numerous obstacles and unforeseen circumstances and continues to maintain sustained economic recovery.

当前，因疫情和产业链、供应链受阻等影响，中国经济比前几年速度有所放缓。但中国总体经济形势是好的，未来预期是强的。从全球范围看，中国经济表现亮丽，新的机遇不断涌现。中国经济长期向好的基本面，是由高质量发展阶段中国发展的历史方位、发展基础、政治保障、制度优势等基本条件造就的，反映了中国经济发展的大逻辑、大趋势，不会因为经济的短期波动、环境的复杂多变而根本改变。有以习近平同志为核心的中共中央坚强领导，有习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的定向引航，有中国特色社会主义制度的显著优势，有持续快速发展积累的坚实基础，有长期稳定的社会环境，有自信自强的精神力量，任何风险挑战都不会改变中国经济稳中向好、长期向好的基本面，不会阻挡中国经济稳健前行的步伐。

A recipe for success

While the pandemic and disruptions across supply and value chains have led to slower economic growth than in previous years, China’s current overall economic situation is good, and its future prospects are strong. By global standards, China’s economy continues to produce excellent results and offer new opportunities. This success and potential for growth is a product of historical, political and economic factors fundamental to the future prosperity of the Chinese economy. These factors include the strong leadership of the CPC, the advantages inherent in China’s socialist system, the solid foundations of continued economic growth, long-term social stability, and the intrinsic confidence in China’s path forward. As China pivots to high-quality development, these fundamentals will not be upended by short-term fluctuations or complexities from changing environments. China’s economy will, regardless of any risks or challenges that it faces, continue to remain on a positive trajectory over the long run.

中文编辑：郝遥

英文翻译：陈靖怡 唐学文 朱玉犇 小麦

审校：衣小伟 李晓琼

制作：张利英

审核：张娴

监制：于波